Goldman Sachs sees France’s 2027 election as a key Euro risk, with a 68% probability of a Le Pen victory.
France’s next presidential election is still months away, but the range of possible institutional outcomes is already wide enough to matter for fiscal policy, European relations and the Euro.
The first round is scheduled for 18 April 2027 and the second for 2 May, according to the French Interior Ministry.
Goldman Sachs has converted current polling into a set of conditional probabilities rather than treating any one survey as a forecast.
“The outcome of these elections is the key source of uncertainty in France’s economic outlook,” the bank said.
Its model assigns Le Pen a 68% probability of winning the presidency.
Former prime minister Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon each have an estimated 35% chance of reaching the second round, reflecting the fact that several candidate combinations remain possible.
Latest Euro market data: EUR/USD traded at 1.1555 at 11:56 BST on 14 August 2026, up 0.19% on the day and 1.15% over one month, but 1.51% lower in 2026.
Winning the presidency is only half the market question
The most consequential scenario combines control of the Élysée with a workable National Assembly majority.
Conditional on a Le Pen presidency, Goldman estimates a 56% chance of an outright National Rally majority, a 24% chance of a coalition with the centre-right and a 19% chance of a hung parliament.
Across all scenarios, the bank puts the probability of a Le Pen presidency plus a parliamentary majority at 39%.
A hung parliament has a 26% probability, while a centrist president with a majority is assigned 14% and a Mélenchon presidency with a majority just 3%.
“Taken together, our models suggest the most likely outcome is for Le Pen to win the presidency and obtain a majority in the National Assembly, although this scenario has only a 39% probability,” Goldman said.
That distinction prevents the 68% headline from becoming a simplistic Euro trading signal.
A president constrained by parliament could deliver a very different fiscal and European agenda from one backed by a stable majority.
The bank therefore says investors should “closely scrutinise Le Pen’s proposals on the economy and regarding Europe” as the campaign develops.
Exchange Rates UK’s professional forecast sentiment survey remains modestly constructive on EUR/USD, with medians of 1.15 for the third quarter, 1.165 for the fourth and 1.18 by the second quarter of 2027.
The election model does not overturn that consensus, but it identifies the political branch point most capable of widening the forecast range as voting approaches.
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
