- GBP/USD consolidates Wednesday’s softer UK CPI-inspired fall to over a two-month low.
- Bets for a BoE rate cut in November weigh on the GBP and the major amid a bullish USD.
- Hopes for a less aggressive Fed policy easing favor the USD bulls ahead of the US data.
The GBP/USD pair remains below the 1.3000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Thursday and is currently placed near its lowest level since August 20 touched the previous day. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favor of bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.
Data published on Wednesday showed that the annual UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerated from 2.2% in August to 1.7% last month, marking the lowest reading since April 2021. The data lifted bets for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in November, which continues to undermine the British Pound (GBP). Apart from this, the recent US Dollar (USD) rally, to the highest level since early August, validates the near-term negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair.
Investors now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will proceed with modest interest rate cuts over the next year. This keeps the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond above the 4% threshold and continues to underpin the USD. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East benefit the Greenback’s relative safe-haven status and support prospects for a further depreciating move for the GBP/USD pair.
Even from a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown below a one-week-old trading range and acceptance below the 1.3000 psychological mark add credence to the bearish setup. Hence, some follow-through weakness towards the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near the 1.2955 region, en route to the 1.2900 mark, looks like a distinct possibility. Traders now look forward to the US macro releases for some impetus later during the early North American session.
Thursday’s US economic docket features monthly Retails Sales report, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production data. This, along with the US bond yields and geopolitical developments, will drive the USD demand and produce short-term trading opportunities around the GBP/USD pair.
