June 30, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer
STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Steady vs Dollar as UK GDP in line with Expectations
The Pound Sterling trended mostly flat against the US Dollar on Monday despite the release of some optimistic UK GDP data.
The Pound (GBP) began the week on the back foot, weakening against several major peers despite the release of stronger-than-expected UK GDP figures.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the British economy expanded by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, a notable improvement from the previous 0.1% reading and in line with forecasts.
However, the Pound struggled to gain traction.
Markets appeared cautious in their response, with investors questioning whether the momentum can be sustained amid ongoing consumer spending pressures and signs of labour market weakness.
As a result, GBP was unable to fully capitalise on the economic rebound.
The US Dollar (USD) was largely directionless on Monday, trading in a narrow range against most major peers as a lack of high-impact US data left markets without a clear catalyst.
With little on the domestic economic calendar to drive movement, investors appeared hesitant to make bold moves on the ‘Greenback’ ahead of key releases due on Tuesday.
These include May’s JOLTs job openings and the ISM manufacturing PMI for June, both of which could significantly influence market sentiment if they deviate from expectations.
In the meantime, the absence of fresh drivers kept USD exchange rates mostly flat through Monday’s European session.
Looking ahead to Thursday’s European session, movement in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is likely to be driven by a mix of UK and US economic releases.
In the US, the spotlight will fall on the latest JOLTs job openings and ISM manufacturing PMI.
Job openings are forecast to decline, while the manufacturing index is expected to remain unchanged.
If both figures meet expectations or disappoint, the US Dollar could come under renewed pressure as signs of a cooling labour market and stagnant factory activity may weigh on Federal Reserve rate expectations.
Meanwhile, the UK will publish its finalised manufacturing PMI for June.
The index is set to be revised slightly higher, from 46.4 to 47.7. However, as the reading remains firmly below the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction, the revision is unlikely to offer much meaningful support to Sterling.
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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts
