According to the Met Office Scotland has had 48% of its normal rainfall for the year to date and England has had even less. There is no rain expected soon, and temperatures are set to rise even higher than in some parts of Spain. This year to date we have had 85.8mm or 3.3 inches of rain up to the end of April, when we only had 7.2mm of rain in April.
Global crop conditions and yield prospects
As we move through spring, crops are largely in their key development stage which means they are more sensitive to moisture and temperature stress. The EU Commission, last week, released its latest crop monitoring report which increased or remained unchanged the estimated yields of total wheat, barley, rye, triticale and rape which are up from last month’s estimates. Yields are forecast to be up significantly from last year’s levels. EU soft wheat yield is forecast at 6.03t/ha, which is up from 5.58t/ha in 2024. Barley yield for 2025 is forecast at 5.08t/ha compared to 4.82t/ha last year.
Not all of Europe is having the same weather as the Northern and central regions are experiencing dry, warmer conditions, leading to soil moisture deficit in some areas, whereas some southern regions are having plenty of rain with some areas even having excess rain causing delays to spring planting.
Northern France, Germany and parts of Poland are experiencing a rainfall deficit of at least 50% in comparison to average but a comment from France was that 75% of the country’s wheat crop was in good or excellent condition as of 14th April, up from 64% a year earlier and that 39% of France’s maize crop was planted by 14th April, versus 15% a week earlier.
In eastern Ukraine, the dry winter conditions have continued into the spring, with winter crops performing poorly and yield potential below average. Ukrainian farmers have planted just 2mHa of grain by 24 April, back 17% from the same point last year due to snow across most regions and unusually cold weather. Looking forward, the yield outlook looks positive for the EU but over the next few weeks rainfall is required to support development of both winter and spring crops. If rain remains low long-term, we could see lower yields which would support both European and UK prices as a result.
47% of US winter wheat was in good or excellent condition as of 13th April, down from 48% a week earlier, with around 32% of the winter wheat area being impacted by drought but there are forecasts of rain coming soon, which if it comes will have the effect of depressing the global wheat markets. Argentina is looking to have a good wheat harvest due to good growing conditions and looking to a 20.5mt harvest which would be a 10% increase on last year.
Grain markets
Global grain markets have been under pressure this past week with Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures down 3.6% and 0.8% respectively. Because of global price pressure this has seen the UK domestic markets fall as well. Over the past two weeks UK feed wheat futures have dropped by 5.7% and on individual days, May 2025 futures dropped by as much as £5.40 and £4.90 per tonne. Currently, May 2025 old crop feed wheat futures stand at £161 and November 2025 new crop at £183, which means there is still a price carry of over £20 between old and new crop wheat.
Currency issues
Currency fluctuations over the last few weeks have continued to impact on the relationship between the UK domestic European and US markets. Since the beginning of April, the euro has strengthened by 2% and 5% against the pound and US dollar respectively, however last week there was some stabilisation, with the euro weakening again.
The larger drop in UK prices is partly due to sterling strengthening against the US dollar and volatility in currency is likely to remain as the US tariff situation continues to unfold. While US tariffs are still with us, especially because of their impact on currency and trade, as happens at this time of year, markets are following weather issues and crop conditions.
US and Russian conditions have a big impact on markets and resultant price movements. President Trump’s tariffs have triggered a notable swing in foreign exchange over recent days, subsequently adding a benefit for some wheat producers but the opposite for others. The primary losers have been countries in the EU thanks to the euro rising to a three-year high versus the dollar. This leaves EU wheat prices having to fall lower to maintain export competitiveness, which is not ideal when EU wheat exports are already running at a slow pace. Shipments to April 6 were already down 34% on the previous year and this could see some stocks finding it difficult to move later.
Exports and imports
The UK saw a strong pace of wheat and maize imports in the first half of this marketing year, which was due to a smaller grain harvest in 2024 and a strengthening sterling. Wheat imports totalled 2.16Mt from July -February, up 50% in the same period last year, and up 78% on the five-year average. However, for the first time this season, monthly imports fell below 200,000t at 194,600t in February which is well below the average monthly pace of 269,700t for this season so far.
The AHDB estimated that full season wheat imports would reach 2.7Mt and to reach this estimate imports would need to average 135,600t per month for the remainder of the season.
Maize imports from Last July-February totalled 1.99mt, up 12% on last year and 19% on the five-year average. Argentine exchange rates and tax reforms are expected to prompt increased farmer selling, though current export licenses sit at just 7.4mt against a 12mt surplus. The 2025-26 crop is forecast at 20.5mt, potentially the largest on record.
Russia, despite lower prices and reduced export taxes from last July -April have exported up to 37mt, so full-season exports may fall short of the US Department’s 44mt estimate. Russia’s large farm stocks on April 1 stood at 98mt, down 33% from last year.
US wheat exports are running ahead of last year, which is needed given the large exportable surplus of 22.3mt, up 2.5mt on the year from a larger crop of 53.65mt, up 4. 5mt.Cumulative exports total 18.2mt but US wheat exporters will be helped by the collapsing value of the US dollar. US wheat stocks are set to rise by 4mt in the year, which will help as there are some concerns for some of the 2025 wheat crops.
World wheat production is forecast at 796.85mt with consumption at 805.2mt and world end stocks at 60mt. The USDA estimates world imports at 198.4mt which is over 23mt down on last season. This lack of activity has been a major reason for the falling world wheat prices this season and exporters will be looking for lower prices to encourage a bounce back in demand.
Oilseed rape
Rapeseed delivered in May to Erith was quoted at £479.50/last week, up £16.50 from the previous week. UK prices followed gains in Paris rapeseed futures with a weaker sterling compared to recent weeks, which supported prices. Strong demand for rapeseed on the continent is also supporting markets.
With a smaller EU supply this season, imports have been higher. As of 13 April, the EU commission reported imports from July reached 5.3mt, up from 4.6mt during the same period last year.
Rapeseed production for the EU-27 plus UK is forecast for 2025-26 at 19.9mt, however there are concerns for yield reduction in Poland and Germany with low soil moisture levels. The Ukraine’s 2025 rapeseed crop is forecast to fall to 3.39mt, down from 3.7mt in 2024 with exports likely to drop to 2.72mt from 3.14mt.
Strong canola exports in Canada are driving stocks lower and supporting prices. Canada reported season-to-date exports at 7.4mt with 16 weeks left in the current marketing year when by that time total exports should have reached 8.3mt.
