PATTAYA, Thailand – Despite opening slightly weaker at 32.50 baht per U.S. dollar Tuesday morning, currency analysts say the Thai baht isn’t likely to fall significantly in the near term — especially with high season approaching and critical trade talks underway.
The baht has drifted downward in recent sessions, pulled by a stronger U.S. dollar and falling global gold prices. However, fears of a steep depreciation appear overblown. Analysts say the currency is facing “two-way risk” — meaning it could swing either way depending on U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve decisions, and the outcome of trade negotiations.
A key deadline looms in early August, as Thailand and the U.S. attempt to reach new trade agreements. Market watchers are also keeping an eye on the Thailand-Cambodia border, where rising tensions could shake investor confidence and influence trade outcomes. Still, support is expected to hold in the 32.30–32.10 baht per dollar range.
In Pattaya, where preparations for peak tourist season are in full swing, the mood is noticeably more upbeat. The influx of foreign visitors is expected to bring fresh currency into the economy — providing a stabilizing force for the baht just as global volatility ramps up.
So while traders may see short-term fluctuations, the broader outlook suggests the baht will stay within a controlled band. With tourism revenues rising and trade talks on the horizon, Thailand’s currency isn’t expected to stray far — especially if calm returns to the border and favorable policy outcomes emerge.
