Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Oganes said the rally is accelerating as more central banks turn to gold amid concerns over currency stability and global fiscal stress.
“If you track gold prices, it took 12 years to move from $1,000 to $2,000 per ounce. It then took only four years to move from $2,000 to $3,000, and it may well take less than a year to go from $3,000 to $4,000,” he said, adding that JPMorgan’s commodities team sees $4,000 as a realistic near-term target.
According to Oganes, the primary driver behind this bullish outlook is a growing fear among central banks that developed market currencies may be debased due to “problematic and troublesome fiscal trends.” This has pushed central banks, particularly in emerging markets, to increase their exposure to gold.
“Gold currently stands at around 20% of central bank reserves in developed markets and around 9% in emerging market central banks. While 9% may seem modest, just 10 years ago it was only 4%,” he pointed out.
The shift comes against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and complex fiscal situations in major economies. Oganes noted that this isn’t a short-term reaction but a structural rebalancing of foreign exchange reserves, with gold being viewed as a more stable, long-term asset.
He also observed a broadening trend of participation. “Certainly, there are many more buyers of gold,” he said, as both developed and emerging market central banks ramp up their gold holdings in response to today’s macroeconomic challenges.
Watch accompanying video for entire conversation.
